Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
