Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
